As harvest approaches, many of you may be wondering about the recent switch to a wetter weather pattern. The previous weather was mostly hot and dry with high pressure over us. The high has moved off and our weather is now being dominated by a weak stationary front over the area with waves of storms moving through it. This means there is an almost-daily chance of rain across most of Georgia until the weather pattern shifts again. This may take a few weeks. Since it is showery thunderstorm-type rain, the storms will be scattered and so some areas may get missed while other areas nearby experience heavy rain, and some may get rain every day while others get missed repeatedly. Your local topography will also affect where storms develop. Thankfully we don’t have to worry about any tropical weather for at least the next couple of weeks since the tropics are currently quiet.
To help you plan your field activities, here are some resources for getting timely weather forecasts up to a week or more ahead. Keep in mind that the farther into the future you go, the less reliable the forecasts are, but there is skill up to a week ahead. I don’t recommend general weather apps since they only get updated once a day and are often not very specific on timing.
To look at the large-scale weather patterns, I use Tropical Tidbits at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=apcpn. On the bottom left of the page you can find Precip/Moisture. This tab will allow you to either pick 24-hour accumulated precipitation or total precipitation over time (time advances with the arrows at the top of the map). By using the 24-hour accumulation tab, you can look for periods when it is likely to be dry for 24 hours or more. For northwest GA, for example, there are only a couple of periods with no rain around July 26-27 and August 1-3, although there are some other periods when it is relatively light. These maps are updated several times a day so you will want to check them every day or two to see how the forecast may have changed when timing of fieldwork is critical.
For specific forecasts at your location, I recommend using the NWS hourly data for your location. They cover a period of up to 6 days ahead at hourly intervals, including the probability of rain. You can get instructions for how to get info for your location at https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/03/where-to-get-hourly-weather-forecast-information/. Another source previously mentioned in this blog is discussed at https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/02/13740/.
